Ok, tal vez fui un poco demasiado duro con la documentación de Android, porque tiene alguna información útil, pero lamentablemente ninguno de ellos está vinculado desde setRetainInstance(). De la página sobre fragmentos

Nota: Cada fragmento requiere un identificador único que el sistema puede use para restaurar el fragmento si la actividad se reinicia (y que puede utilizar para capturar el fragmento para realizar transacciones, como retírela). Hay tres maneras de proporcionar una identificación para un fragmento:

• Proporcione al atributo android:id un ID único.
• Proporcione al atributo android:tag una cadena única.
• Si no proporciona ninguno de los dos anteriores, el sistema utiliza el ID de la vista contenedor.

Esto implica fuertemente que si haces setContentView(R.layout.whatever) en Activity.onCreated() y ese layout contiene un fragmento con setRetainInstance(true), entonces cuando la actividad sea recreada será buscada de nuevo usando su id o etiqueta.

En segundo lugar, para fragmentos sin interfaz de usuario, establece

Para agregar un fragmento sin interfaz de usuario, agregue el fragmento de la actividad usando add (Fragment, String) (suministrando una cadena única "tag" para el fragmento, en lugar de un ID de vista). Esto añade el fragmento, pero, porque no está asociado con una vista en el diseño de la actividad, no recibe una llamada a onCreateView (). Así que no necesitas implementar eso método.

Y los documentos enlazan a un muy buen ejemplo - FragmentRetainInstance.java que han reproducido a continuación para su conveniencia. Hace exactamente lo que especulé que era la respuesta en mi pregunta (if (...findFragmentByTag() == null) { ...).

Finalmente, creé mi propia actividad de prueba para ver exactamente qué funciones se llaman. Genera esto cuando se inicia en vertical y se gira a horizontal. El código está abajo.

(Esto se edita un poco para que sea más fácil de leer.)

TestActivity@415a4a30: this()
TestActivity@415a4a30: onCreate()
TestActivity@415a4a30: Existing fragment not found.
TestFragment{41583008}: this() TestFragment{41583008}
TestFragment{41583008}: onAttach(TestActivity@415a4a30)
TestFragment{41583008}: onCreate()
TestFragment{41583008}: onCreateView()
TestFragment{41583008}: onActivityCreated()
TestActivity@415a4a30: onStart()
TestFragment{41583008}: onStart()
TestActivity@415a4a30: onResume()
TestFragment{41583008}: onResume()

<rotate device>

TestFragment{41583008}: onPause()
TestActivity@415a4a30: onPause()
TestFragment{41583008}: onStop()
TestActivity@415a4a30: onStop()
TestFragment{41583008}: onDestroyView()
TestFragment{41583008}: onDetach()
TestActivity@415a4a30: onDestroy()
TestActivity@415a3380: this()
TestFragment{41583008}: onAttach(TestActivity@415a3380)
TestActivity@415a3380: onCreate()
TestActivity@415a3380: Existing fragment found.
TestFragment{41583008}: onCreateView()
TestFragment{41583008}: onActivityCreated()
TestActivity@415a3380: onStart()
TestFragment{41583008}: onStart()
TestActivity@415a3380: onResume()
TestFragment{41583008}: onResume()

Ten en cuenta que la documentación de Android es incorrecta: el fragmento sin interfaz de usuario recibe una llamada a onCreateView() pero es libre de volver null.

Código Fuente para TestActivity/TestFragment

import android.app.Activity;
import android.app.Fragment;
import android.app.FragmentTransaction;
import android.os.Bundle;
import android.util.Log;
import android.view.LayoutInflater;
import android.view.View;
import android.view.ViewGroup;
import android.widget.TextView;

import com.concentriclivers.ss.R;

// An activity for understanding Android lifecycle events.
public class TestActivity extends Activity
{
    private static final String TAG = TestActivity.class.getSimpleName();

    public TestActivity()
    {
        super();
        Log.d(TAG, this + ": this()");
    }

    protected void finalize() throws Throwable
    {
        super.finalize();
        Log.d(TAG, this + ": finalize()");
    }

    @Override
    public void onCreate(Bundle savedInstanceState)
    {
        super.onCreate(savedInstanceState);
        Log.d(TAG, this + ": onCreate()");


        TextView tv = new TextView(this);
        tv.setText("Hello world");
        setContentView(tv);

        if (getFragmentManager().findFragmentByTag("test_fragment") == null)
        {
            Log.d(TAG, this + ": Existing fragment not found.");
            FragmentTransaction ft = getFragmentManager().beginTransaction();
            ft.add(new TestFragment(), "test_fragment").commit();
        }
        else
        {
            Log.d(TAG, this + ": Existing fragment found.");
        }
    }

    @Override
    public void onStart()
    {
        super.onStart();
        Log.d(TAG, this + ": onStart()");
    }

    @Override
    public void onResume()
    {
        super.onResume();
        Log.d(TAG, this + ": onResume()");
    }

    @Override
    public void onPause()
    {
        super.onPause();
        Log.d(TAG, this + ": onPause()");
    }

    @Override
    public void onStop()
    {
        super.onStop();
        Log.d(TAG, this + ": onStop()");
    }

    @Override
    public void onDestroy()
    {
        super.onDestroy();
        Log.d(TAG, this + ": onDestroy()");
    }




    public static class TestFragment extends Fragment
    {
        private static final String TAG = TestFragment.class.getSimpleName();

        public TestFragment()
        {
            super();
            Log.d(TAG,  this + ": this() " + this);
        }

        @Override
        public void onCreate(Bundle savedInstanceState)
        {
            super.onCreate(savedInstanceState);
            Log.d(TAG, this + ": onCreate()");
            setRetainInstance(true);
        }

        @Override
        public void onAttach(final Activity activity)
        {
            super.onAttach(activity);
            Log.d(TAG, this + ": onAttach(" + activity + ")");
        }

        @Override
        public void onActivityCreated(Bundle savedInstanceState)
        {
            super.onActivityCreated(savedInstanceState);
            Log.d(TAG, this + ": onActivityCreated()");
        }

        @Override
        public View onCreateView(LayoutInflater inflater, ViewGroup container, Bundle savedInstanceState)
        {
            Log.d(TAG, this + ": onCreateView()");
            return null;
        }

        @Override
        public void onViewCreated(View view, Bundle savedInstanceState)
        {
            super.onViewCreated(view, savedInstanceState);
            Log.d(TAG, this + ": onViewCreated()");
        }

        @Override
        public void onDestroyView()
        {
            super.onDestroyView();
            Log.d(TAG, this + ": onDestroyView()");
        }

        @Override
        public void onDetach()
        {
            super.onDetach();
            Log.d(TAG, this + ": onDetach()");
        }

        @Override
        public void onStart()
        {
            super.onStart();
            Log.d(TAG, this + ": onStart()");
        }

        @Override
        public void onResume()
        {
            super.onResume();
            Log.d(TAG, this + ": onResume()");
        }

        @Override
        public void onPause()
        {
            super.onPause();
            Log.d(TAG, this + ": onPause()");
        }

        @Override
        public void onStop()
        {
            super.onStop();
            Log.d(TAG, this + ": onStop()");
        }

        @Override
        public void onDestroy()
        {
            super.onDestroy();
            Log.d(TAG, this + ": onDestroy()");
        }
    }

}

Código fuente para FragmentRetainInstance.java (a partir de API 16):

/*
 * Copyright (C) 2010 The Android Open Source Project
 *
 * Licensed under the Apache License, Version 2.0 (the "License");
 * you may not use this file except in compliance with the License.
 * You may obtain a copy of the License at
 *
 *      http://www.apache.org/licenses/LICENSE-2.0
 *
 * Unless required by applicable law or agreed to in writing, software
 * distributed under the License is distributed on an "AS IS" BASIS,
 * WITHOUT WARRANTIES OR CONDITIONS OF ANY KIND, either express or implied.
 * See the License for the specific language governing permissions and
 * limitations under the License.
 */

package com.example.android.apis.app;

import com.example.android.apis.R;

import android.app.Activity;
import android.app.Fragment;
import android.app.FragmentManager;
import android.os.Bundle;
import android.view.LayoutInflater;
import android.view.View;
import android.view.ViewGroup;
import android.view.View.OnClickListener;
import android.widget.Button;
import android.widget.ProgressBar;

/**
 * This example shows how you can use a Fragment to easily propagate state
 * (such as threads) across activity instances when an activity needs to be
 * restarted due to, for example, a configuration change.  This is a lot
 * easier than using the raw Activity.onRetainNonConfiguratinInstance() API.
 */
public class FragmentRetainInstance extends Activity {
    @Override
    protected void onCreate(Bundle savedInstanceState) {
        super.onCreate(savedInstanceState);

        // First time init, create the UI.
        if (savedInstanceState == null) {
            getFragmentManager().beginTransaction().add(android.R.id.content,
                    new UiFragment()).commit();
        }
    }

    /**
     * This is a fragment showing UI that will be updated from work done
     * in the retained fragment.
     */
    public static class UiFragment extends Fragment {
        RetainedFragment mWorkFragment;

        @Override
        public View onCreateView(LayoutInflater inflater, ViewGroup container,
                Bundle savedInstanceState) {
            View v = inflater.inflate(R.layout.fragment_retain_instance, container, false);

            // Watch for button clicks.
            Button button = (Button)v.findViewById(R.id.restart);
            button.setOnClickListener(new OnClickListener() {
                public void onClick(View v) {
                    mWorkFragment.restart();
                }
            });

            return v;
        }

        @Override
        public void onActivityCreated(Bundle savedInstanceState) {
            super.onActivityCreated(savedInstanceState);

            FragmentManager fm = getFragmentManager();

            // Check to see if we have retained the worker fragment.
            mWorkFragment = (RetainedFragment)fm.findFragmentByTag("work");

            // If not retained (or first time running), we need to create it.
            if (mWorkFragment == null) {
                mWorkFragment = new RetainedFragment();
                // Tell it who it is working with.
                mWorkFragment.setTargetFragment(this, 0);
                fm.beginTransaction().add(mWorkFragment, "work").commit();
            }
        }

    }

    /**
     * This is the Fragment implementation that will be retained across
     * activity instances.  It represents some ongoing work, here a thread
     * we have that sits around incrementing a progress indicator.
     */
    public static class RetainedFragment extends Fragment {
        ProgressBar mProgressBar;
        int mPosition;
        boolean mReady = false;
        boolean mQuiting = false;

        /**
         * This is the thread that will do our work.  It sits in a loop running
         * the progress up until it has reached the top, then stops and waits.
         */
        final Thread mThread = new Thread() {
            @Override
            public void run() {
                // We'll figure the real value out later.
                int max = 10000;

                // This thread runs almost forever.
                while (true) {

                    // Update our shared state with the UI.
                    synchronized (this) {
                        // Our thread is stopped if the UI is not ready
                        // or it has completed its work.
                        while (!mReady || mPosition >= max) {
                            if (mQuiting) {
                                return;
                            }
                            try {
                                wait();
                            } catch (InterruptedException e) {
                            }
                        }

                        // Now update the progress.  Note it is important that
                        // we touch the progress bar with the lock held, so it
                        // doesn't disappear on us.
                        mPosition++;
                        max = mProgressBar.getMax();
                        mProgressBar.setProgress(mPosition);
                    }

                    // Normally we would be doing some work, but put a kludge
                    // here to pretend like we are.
                    synchronized (this) {
                        try {
                            wait(50);
                        } catch (InterruptedException e) {
                        }
                    }
                }
            }
        };

        /**
         * Fragment initialization.  We way we want to be retained and
         * start our thread.
         */
        @Override
        public void onCreate(Bundle savedInstanceState) {
            super.onCreate(savedInstanceState);

            // Tell the framework to try to keep this fragment around
            // during a configuration change.
            setRetainInstance(true);

            // Start up the worker thread.
            mThread.start();
        }

        /**
         * This is called when the Fragment's Activity is ready to go, after
         * its content view has been installed; it is called both after
         * the initial fragment creation and after the fragment is re-attached
         * to a new activity.
         */
        @Override
        public void onActivityCreated(Bundle savedInstanceState) {
            super.onActivityCreated(savedInstanceState);

            // Retrieve the progress bar from the target's view hierarchy.
            mProgressBar = (ProgressBar)getTargetFragment().getView().findViewById(
                    R.id.progress_horizontal);

            // We are ready for our thread to go.
            synchronized (mThread) {
                mReady = true;
                mThread.notify();
            }
        }

        /**
         * This is called when the fragment is going away.  It is NOT called
         * when the fragment is being propagated between activity instances.
         */
        @Override
        public void onDestroy() {
            // Make the thread go away.
            synchronized (mThread) {
                mReady = false;
                mQuiting = true;
                mThread.notify();
            }

            super.onDestroy();
        }

        /**
         * This is called right before the fragment is detached from its
         * current activity instance.
         */
        @Override
        public void onDetach() {
            // This fragment is being detached from its activity.  We need
            // to make sure its thread is not going to touch any activity
            // state after returning from this function.
            synchronized (mThread) {
                mProgressBar = null;
                mReady = false;
                mThread.notify();
            }

            super.onDetach();
        }

        /**
         * API for our UI to restart the progress thread.
         */
        public void restart() {
            synchronized (mThread) {
                mPosition = 0;
                mThread.notify();
            }
        }
    }
}